New Delhi/Washington DC, August 09th, 2024 — The Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) and the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) today announced a new partnership to investigate the economic impacts of Arctic ice melt on India, its economy and global impact. This collaboration aims to leverage both organizations’ expertise to deliver insights into the intersection of climate change and economic stability.
IGSD and NCAER will develop comprehensive economic models to assess how the Arctic changes, particularly with the loss of sea ice, affecting India’s monsoon variability, directly impacting agricultural outputs in India, and its overall impact on the economic health of the country. The research will also explore the broader implications of the Northern Sea Route on global trade and the Indian economy.
Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) significantly contribute to Arctic warming, with methane emissions anywhere impacting climate and health globally. IGSD’s research has shown that reducing methane emissions by 45% by 2030 can avoid almost 0.3 °C of warming globally and 0.5 °C in the Arctic by the 2040s.
A detailed single-country multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for India will be carried out to quantify the impact of monsoon instability on agriculture, food security, and infrastructure. This will include running policy scenarios to understand the potential economic implications by mid-century. In addition, a global trade model (GTAP) will be developed to analyze the impact of the Northern Sea Route on India’s economy, considering the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and its contribution to global warming. Developing this economic model will provide insights into the specific impacts on various sectors and inform strategic responses.
Reducing methane and SLCP emissions is critical for mitigating these impacts, offering the fastest opportunity to slow warming by 2030 and improving the resilience of economies worldwide. Reducing methane and short-lived climate pollutants and understanding the intersection of Arctic ice melting-induced climate change and agro- and socio-economic stability is crucial for future planning and sustainability in line with SDG 13.
Durwood Zaelke, President of IGSD, stated, “This partnership represents a significant step forward in understanding the far-reaching impacts of Arctic changes. By combining our expertise, we aim to provide policymakers with the critical data they need to make informed decisions that protect the planet, as well as the economy.”
Zerin Osho, Director of the India Program at IGSD, further added, “It is essential for India to understand the impact of the loss of Arctic Sea Ice on its economy to understand the emerging role of Indian foreign policy in the protection of the Arctic to secure India’s long-term strategic interests. This will help India’s strategic position and ensure India’s path to becoming a true leader of the Global South.”
Sanjib Pohit, Professor at NCAER, added, “The economic stability of India is intricately linked to climatic patterns. Our collaboration with IGSD will help us build robust models to predict and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, particularly those stemming from Arctic ice melt, on our agriculture and economy.”